Notch another win for the Democratic machine — Biden is out of the 2024 presidential race. In fact, things are unfolding according to plan. The Democrats knew Biden’s mental incapacity would become obvious as he campaigned. If the country saw his steep decline at the debate, the insiders knew about it long before then.

Initially, Biden made no commitment to debate former President Donald Trump. I suspect the Democrats looked at their poll numbers and realized that wouldn’t work. Some right-leaning folks were upset with Trump — the master negotiator — for agreeing so quickly to the Democratic National Committee’s debate terms (to be moderated by CNN in June, ABC in September). “You had leverage!” they squawked. “The moderators will be biased!” Probably true, but Trump was chomping at the bit to debate Biden.

The DNC insisted on the first debate being in June. On the surface, that’s bizarre. The general election season doesn’t kick into high gear until after Labor Day. Debates normally happen in October.

But it was genius: There’d be time to pull the plug on Biden if he flopped. June comes before the DNC and formal nomination process. In the debate, Biden had one job: Show himself to be in command of his role as president. If he could do that, people could infer he’s able to keep serving for another term. But that turned out to be a tall order — and when he fell short, the knives came out.

The Timing

Some say Biden’s decision to withdraw was courageous and sacrificial. Others say it was only his stubbornness and arrogance that kept him in this long. I think the timing of his withdrawal was quite helpful from the DNC’s perspective. As Vivek Ramaswamy put it, “This is the optimal scenario they’ve actually been waiting for. I think there was not a rush for them to do it before the RNC. I think they wanted the RNC to play out.”

For one, that way the Republican National Committee wastes time and money attacking someone who isn’t running. Secondly, once you know who both your opponents are —Trump and now J.D. Vance — you’re in a better position to decide what ticket, and what strategy, is most likely to beat them.

Biden dropping out right after the Republican National Convention may even blunt the bounce a candidate normally gets afterward. In this case, Trump may have otherwise enjoyed a double-bounce, factoring in the assassination attempt and the goodwill that brought him. It’s not just sympathy for getting shot (though that helps); it’s what he did afterward. The raising of the fist, the courage, the defiance in the face of evil. Most people look at that and say, “That looks like a leader to me.” Even Mark Zuckerberg is gushing.

Biden biting the (metaphorical) bullet on Sunday immediately shifts the narrative away from Trump. With less than four months to go until the election, a major party’s nominee just bailed. It’s so crazy that it’s all anyone’s going to be talking about for the next week. I think that helps Democrats because Trump had a generally successful, and GOP-uniting, convention.

Mayhem Awaits: The DNC Convention

The Democrats are scrambling. Now that Biden has withdrawn, his delegates from the primary are no longer pledged to him and are free to vote as they choose whoever they want for the ticket. Vice President Kamala Harris has the advantage in that she has secured not just Biden’s endorsement but the support of former President Bill Clinton and his wife, the 2016 nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

Curiously, former President Barack Obama seems to prefer a more open convention process. There’s something to be said for Harris earning the nomination a bit, and not just having it handed to her; the process can help her. Still, because a few heavy hitters have backed Harris so quickly, others may play nice and position themselves for selection as her running mate. The Democratic National Convention runs August 19-22, so there’s time for Harris to line someone up. Any choice, if reciprocated, eliminates a rival.

The committee also will be looking at Harris vs. Trump polling data. The so-called superdelegates in the Democratic Party could pull the plug on Harris and direct attention elsewhere if her numbers are low nationally and in the swing states. But I expect she’ll get a small bump in the next few days as Dems try to rally around her, a cloud having been lifted now that Biden is out.

Harris is to the left of Biden on abortion, religious liberty, and Israel. The DNC would be wise to recruit a moderate leader from one of the six or seven states that will decide the election — someone who would balance Harris, a darling of the progressive left. Neither California Gov. Gavin Newsom nor Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer are particularly moderate. Both have baggage.

The Democrats would be wiser to look to someone like Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro or Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly. Shapiro gave gracious and authentic praise for Corey Comperatore, the avid Trump supporter who died at the rally in Butler, Penn., shielding his wife and daughter. There was no artifice. Shapiro’s compassion was as real as it gets.

Kelly is interesting in that his wife, former U.S. Congresswoman Gabby Giffords, was shot and nearly killed in 2011. Selecting Kelly would likely make gun control an issue in the election. Pennsylvania and Arizona are both states that Trump won in 2016 but lost in 2020. Independent Senator Joe Manchin, re-registering as a Democrat, would be another formidable running mate choice for Harris. (Manchin announced yesterday he would not seek the nomination against Harris.)

Team Trump Needs to Be Smart and Focused

Team Trump now must wait a few weeks to figure out who their opponents will be. That can’t be helpful. But with Harris not polling well, it’s still Trump’s race to lose. It will come down to which way the undecideds break and base voter turnout.

On the undecideds, Trump’s nomination acceptance speech was, overall, a missed opportunity. The first 25 minutes were brilliant and winsome: the retelling of his assassination attempt, riveting; the talk about representing all of America, great; the honor shown to Corey Comperatore, classy; his defense of how lower corporate tax rates led to greater corporate tax revenue, appropriate.

But when he went off script, Trump’s remarks didn’t fit the occasion or help undecideds. The tone should have been more like a State of the Union address and less like a rally speech given to an audience that already loves him. Sure, Trump showed his stamina to be far greater than Biden’s, if simply by speaking for 90+ minutes. But it was never going to be a Trump/Biden rematch.

On base voter turnout, it helps to stand for something boldly and to explain it winsomely — to know where you want to take the country and why. Paint with bold colors, not pale pastels, as President Reagan said. The selection of J.D. Vance is a doubling-down on Trumpism. It’s aimed at winning the Rust Belt. Vance doesn’t secure a missing GOP element like Mike Pence did in 2016, when conservative Christians were skeptical of businessman Trump. Nor does Vance add a state; Ohio is already solidly red. Vance is kind of a “go big or go home” choice. It was made with the confidence Trump had when he narrowly escaped an assassin’s bullet.

My concern with Vance is that Trump may alienate the free market-loving, Reaganesque wing of the party in a way that Pence didn’t. Similarly, dropping the pro-life and pro-marriage language from the party platform risks alienating religious conservatives. More recently, at his first post-convention rally in Michigan on Saturday, Trump tore into Project 2025 as being from the “radical right.”

It’s from the Heritage Foundation, for Pete’s sake. Does Trump recall that one year after taking office, his administration had embraced nearly two-thirds of Heritage’s policy recommendations? Does Trump remember who he was then, and how he won in 2016? It seems as if Trump is now trying to avoid anything that could earn him the smear of being “conservative.” Good luck with that — the Left is going to smear him anyway! Meanwhile, disowning key elements of the political right could prompt base voters (reliable Republicans) to stay home. He should ask himself: When’s the last time a moderate Republican won the White House? How’d the McCain and Romney campaigns do?

Trump won in 2016 — barely — with bold ideas that he explained in clear, vivid language until they stuck. In 2020, he ran on a strong record and the same ticket — with no waffling on abortion, and no trashing of ideas about how to make government smaller, more efficient, and more accountable.

In 2024, he seems to be running more on Trump nostalgia than on a coherent set of public policy positions. That needs to change, and fast.

Alex Chediak (Ph.D., U.C. Berkeley) is a professor and the author of Thriving at College (Tyndale House, 2011), a roadmap for how students can best navigate the challenges of their college years. His latest book is Beating the College Debt Trap. Learn more about him at www.alexchediak.com or follow him on Twitter (@chediak).