Just three weeks before the Iowa caucus, Bernie Sanders has pulled even with Hillary Clinton among likely Democratic voters in both Iowa and New Hampshire, according to a Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist poll, and he would do better in the general election in those states than she would. Clinton leads 48% to 45% in Iowa, Sanders 50% to 46% in New Hampshire (both margins with the poll’s margin of error). Sanders attracts more independents who say they’ll vote in the Democratic primary, while Clinton wins more Democrats. Her big advantage among minority voters does not help her much in the first two states to vote.

It is not what Clinton expected or needs, given her advantages in name recognition, women and minority voters, and money. “Losses in Iowa and New Hampshire would level a blow to Mrs. Clinton’s presidential prospects, give Mr. Sanders a burst of momentum and immediately inject his campaign with more credibility. Yet back-to-back defeats might not be debilitating to Mrs. Clinton,” the Wall Street Journal reports, because she has such an advantage among minority voters.

Sanders “continues to rely on younger voters and men,” Politico reports. “In Iowa, Sanders holds commanding leads among male caucusgoers (56 percent to 39 percent) and those under 45 years old (64 percent to 29 percent). Clinton, on the other hand, has a strong lead among women (56 percent to 35 percent) and those aged 45 or older (60 percent to 33 percent).” In New Hampshire, Sanders has almost as great support among women as Clinton, getting 46% of women’s votes while Clinton gets 50%.

In RedState’s analysis, “voter intensity says Sanders could easily pull an upset victory. … This Sanders surge reflects what we have seen happening on the ground.” RedState noted that in the last Democratic poll Clinton lead 49-31, a lead that’s now evaporated. In New Hampshire, “FoxNews had Sanders leading Clinton 50-37. Home field advantage (sorta) and voter intensity says Sanders wins New Hampshire handily.”

Sanders would beat Donald Trump in both states by “landslide margins,” writes Democratic insider and The Hill columnist Brent Budowsky in The New York Observer. (Clinton would beat Trump soundly in Iowa and barely edge him in New Hampshire.) Sanders’ victory in the caucus and the primary would expose what Budowsky called “The Big Lie,” that “Trump has somehow touched some magical chord about the will of the nation.” What he called “The Big Truth” is this, he wrote:

There is a widespread national rebellion against politics as usual, and against economics as usual, and against a politics and media that pay homage to political games that are fixed and an economic system that is rigged — and the true and faithful voice for this discontent across the nation as a whole, whatever the factions of the GOP may wrongly believe and whatever the factotums of the mainstream media may falsely report — is Mr. Sanders, and not Mr. Trump.

Adding to Clinton’s problems was praise for Sanders from vice president Joseph Biden. Speaking to CNN about “the enormous absolute concentration of wealth among a small group of people with the middle class … left out,” Biden said that “Bernie is speaking to a yearning that is deep and real. And he has credibility on it,” while “It’s relatively new for Hillary to talk about that.”

Biden intended to aid Sanders in Iowa and New Hampshire, Budowsky claimed in another Observer article. “With the kind of brilliance that would make Niccolo Machiavelli proud,” Budowsky wrote, “Mr. Biden (faintly) praised Ms. Clinton by stating that she has taken some good positions on economic equality issues but added (here is the dagger) she is a newcomer to the cause (unlike Mr. Sanders and presumably Mr. Biden).” Biden hopes that Sanders will disrupt Clinton’s supposedly inevitable progress to the nomination, giving him a chance to step in, Budowsky claims.

Marvin O’Malley would receive 5% of the vote in Iowa and 1% in New Hampshire, according to the poll. The Wall Street Journal story didn’t bother to mention him. Neither did Politico, RedState, and The Observer.