Like legendary Star Trek Captain James T. Kirk, President Donald Trump prefers poker to chess (at least when dealing directly with potential enemies). But there’s yet another game our 47^th president is actually playing, so far, in his second term: Risk.

If you’ve never indulged, Risk is a game of “global dominion” which entails “nations of the world gathering forces and launching assaults to claim each other’s territory.” (Here’s the original game map.)

Rare Earth Elements

While Trump, contra Left-liberal caterwauling, has yet to drop the 82^nd Airborne into Montreal or Munich, he is working peacefully to counteract Beijing’s attempt to seize the global economic, geopolitical, and military high ground. Most overtly, the Trump administration has waged attacks on the extant, post-World War II international order through tariffs (imposing them reciprocally on countries that already had imposed them on US goods).

But his rhetorical and diplomatic pursuit of regions possessing “rare earth elements” (REEs) is where the current POTUS is primarily engaging in risky behavior. Doing so presents both undeniable dangers and huge opportunities. But it’s well worth it, as the very future of this country may depend on access to such resources.

Why be so serious about these elements? Because REEs are vital to many modern technologies: computer hard drives and superconductors, hybrid cars, cameras, automobile catalytic converters, commercial and military aircraft components, TV and computer screens, nuclear reactor control rods, microwaves, lasers, X-ray machines, fiber optics, and, perhaps most importantly, space programs and artificial intelligence (AI) systems. (Here’s more on REEs’ chemical properties and location in the periodic table, if you’re so inclined.)

China is far and away the world’s primary producer of REEs, and also holds the largest estimated reserves of them. The next biggest tranches of these indispensable metals are in Brazil, India, Australia, Russia and Vietnam. The US is seventh on the list, with approximately the same amounts as Greenland. Ukraine, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and Canada are also believed to have vast, untapped deposits of REEs.

But Communist China currently controls 60% of the raw supply and processes over 90% of REEs, making the US (and other countries) extremely vulnerable to its monopoly. In its final year, the Biden administration did begin to address this issue, but Trump is treating potential lack of REEs as a “huge” strategic threat to American society — not merely another State Department talking point.

Global Areas of REE Competition

So in good Risk player fashion, Trump is trying, at a minimum, to secure access to these reserves — and frankly, if possible, to annex REE-rich territory. His administration is already planning on building more American facilities for processing REEs on our military bases. But where might they get those raw materials?

• Trump’s interest in making the Great White North the “51^st state” is not just in trade and border security, then (or just a flamboyant way to make former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau feel like a patsy). But by doing so, he’s antagonized our closest (both geographically and politically) neighbor by doing so (although embarrassing Trudeau was probably worth it).
• Forty-seven’s chances of peacefully adopting the world’s largest, most sparsely-populated island into Uncle Sam’s family may have increased with the recent victory of the center-right party there. But the Danes are even madder about the idea of annexation than the Canadians. After all, just last Thursday, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that Greenland is only part of Denmark because “Eric the Red, this Viking kicked out of Denmark for murdering people, what does he do? He goes to Greenland and takes over by murdering people.”
• A proposed post-war deal for the US to develop REEs there, in return for substantial access, appears to be back in the works after the Press Conference Heard Around the World (aka the Trump-Vance-Zelenskyy Oval Office meltdown) on Feb. 28.
• Russia, Russia, Russia!? The Kremlin floated a plan to let the US “gain some ownership” of REEs in eastern Ukrainian areas the Russians have annexed. But whether even Trump is willing to cooperate to this degree with Vladimir Putin is an open question.
• The CEO of Lynas, “the world’s biggest producer of rare earths outside China,” encouraged the U.S. to look Down Under for these strategic commodities.
• Overlooked in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the U.S. last month was that the two countries “agreed to launch a ‘strategic mineral recovery’ initiative.” The DRC is actively pursuing an REE deal with the U.S. as its relations with China are souring.
• Our former enemy Vietnam is now ready to “welcome U.S. investors to participate in energy projects and mining.” One big reason? While Vietnam and China are trying to improve relations, they have a long history of conflict, including a brief war in 1979.
• Just a few weeks ago, the Trump administration decided to “resume joint research to identify areas rich in critical minerals with Brazilian territory.” But this agreement is not guaranteed, considering that Brazil’s Leftist president, Lula da Silva, is not overly fond of Trump, and last month accused him of wanting to “become emperor of the world.”

Trump Doesn’t Want to Rule the World — Just Enough of It to Make America Great and Safe

Trump doesn’t want to rule the world — probably just North America up to the Arctic Circle. (Maybe he should ask House Speaker Mike Johnson to resurrect the 1866 “Annexation [of Canada] Bill.”)

A US-Canada Condominium, with Greenland on its eastern flank, would not only cinch (North) American access to REEs; it would negate, or at least greatly reduce, Russian dominance of the Arctic — another key Trump geopolitical concern.

So, yes — Trump is playing Risk, not chess or poker. The biggest problem with Risk, however, is that it contains a strong element of chance, as attackers and defenders throw dice to see who wins. But considering how Trump has beaten the odds consistently over the last decade — no matter how loaded the dice were — one would be a fool to bet against him in either domestic or international politics.

And if he wins at the REE game, so does America.

Timothy Furnish has a PhD from Ohio State in Islamic, World & African history. He’s been an Arabic interrogator in the 101st Airborne, a US Special Operations Command analyst, an author and professor. Furnish is the military/security affairs writer for The Stream.