Can Trump Win in the Fall? He Says Yes. Polls and Critics Say No. History Says Nobody Knows

By Dustin Siggins Published on May 9, 2016

Expected Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on Sunday that while “it would be better if [the GOP] were unified” behind his candidacy, “I don’t think it actually has to be unified in the traditional sense.”

Trump has long said he will win because he will draw voters across party lines. However, two prominent conservatives disagreed, pointing to polling that they say shows the media mogul is likely to lose the fall election to expectedΒ Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.

Trump’s “metabolic urge to be scabrous guarantees that Republican candidates everywhere will be badgered by questions about what they think about what he says,” wrote George Will on Friday. “What they say will determine how many of them lose with him, and how many deserve to.”

Will, who has long and heavily criticized Trump, compared the candidate’s favorability numbers with women, Hispanics and other groups to the votes garnered by the Republican Party’s 2012 nominee, Mitt Romney, with those demographic groups. He also noted Trump’s high disapproval ratings in many states that historically have voted Republican.

Red State founder Erick Erickson likewise noted a new poll of Georgia voters showing Trump has onlyΒ a slight lead over Clinton in the normally “bright red” state.Β “The poll caught lots of people off guard,” wrote Erickson at his new perch, The Resurgent. “Trump and Hillary are essentially tied with Trump at 42.3% and Clinton at 41.4%. What is even more shocking is that 15% of people are undecided.”

“Trump is, like in Arizona, Utah and Mississippi, the only Republican nominee who puts the state in play,” continued the prominent Trump critic. “Thus far there are zero polls showing any traditional blue state might wind up going to Trump. But we are now up to four bright red states that become purple with Trump as the nominee.”

“Likewise, North Carolina goes from purple to blue as does Virginia.”

But while Trump’s conservative critics* search for a third-party alternative to deny both him and Clinton the White House, that opposition may not be widespread in either the GOP or the conservative movement. An unofficial survey of “hundreds” of CPAC 2016 attendees conducted by a former leader of Michigan’s Students for McCain found that most grassroots conservatives would back Trump, while Hot Air Senior Editor AllahPundit concluded that most conservatives who have declared they will not vote for Trump in the fall are part of a “small and electorally insignificant” group “mainly driven by conservative political/media professionals.”

Additionally, a number of former primary opponents have backed Trump, including former governors Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal and Mike Huckabee. And he has garnered the full-throated backing of Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus.

On the other side of the equation, House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) has said he’s unwilling to back Trump yet, though the two are set to meet on Thursday. Others who have distinctly said they will not vote for Trump in the general election include former opponents Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush.

Some of the GOP’s top donors have likewise said they may sit out the election or back Clinton, according to Politico.

Whether support from the GOP and conservative leaders and donor classes will matter in an election marked by uprisings in both parties is an open question. The political establishment has been turned upside down by Trump, a candidate who many insiders and pundits predicted would not enter the race, then predicted would drop out, then predicted he couldn’t sustain his early success, then predicted he wouldn’t survive when the GOP field narrowed. Other predictions have similarly proven untenable, such as the theory that Trump’s sometimes derogatory comments about women, Muslims and immigrants would prove to be his downfall in the crowded and months-long Republican primary.

 

*Disclosure: This reporter is on record as being opposed to voting for Donald Trump for President of the United States in this year’s general election.

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