Earning a four-year degree will lead to a good job and higher lifetime earnings. Right? It’s what our parents and teachers have told us since we were kids. It’s what drives college enrollment today. And it’s true: College graduates, on average, do better financially than those without a degree. They also have a much lower unemployment rate, in good times and bad.

That’s why a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News survey might surprise you. They asked the simple question Is a four-year college degree worth the cost? They found that public opinion has shifted quickly. People still believe earning a four-year degree will lead to a good job and higher lifetime earnings. But only by a two-point margin. Just four years ago it was a 13-point margin.

What accounts for this 11-point shift? It’s not college graduates. Their optimism about college is almost exactly what it was four years ago. By a rate of 2-1, those who graduate say it was worth it. But many others are losing faith.

Big Shifts in Key Demographics

As Josh Mitchell and Douglas Belkin report in the Wall Street Journal, big shifts have occurred in key demographics. Millennials, men, and those without college degrees have all dramatically soured on the value of college.

According to a June 2013 survey, just over 55% of 18-34 year olds thought a four-year college degree was worth the cost. Just under 40% thought it wasn’t. Today? It’s flipped, almost exactly. Skeptics outnumber believers by an 18-point margin (57% to 39%).

In 2013, there was almost no difference between men and women on the perceived value of college. About 52% said it was worth it. About 40% said it wasn’t. That’s a 12-point margin in favor of college. Today, men say it’s not worth it, by a 10-point margin. Women remain confident in college’s value.

In 2013, Americans with less than a four-year degree were split equally on whether a four-year degree was worth the cost. Some in this group are college drop-outs, others never went, and still others earned a two-year degree. This group now believes—by a 15 point margin—that a four-year degree is not worth the cost.

Mitchell and Belkin point out, “Today, Democrats, urban residents and Americans who consider themselves middle- and upper-class generally believe college is worth it; Republicans, rural residents and people who identify themselves as poor or working-class Americans don’t.” This is consistent with Pew data showing that a majority of Republicans think colleges are bad for America.

Why?

Mitchell and Belkin observe that according to Federal Reserve research, the wage premium of getting a degree has flattened in recent years. Those with degrees don’t stand out as much in the job market when lots of other people also have degrees.

Another factor could be the improving economy. Research shows that in recessions, college enrollment rises. With fewer earning prospects — or with the recent loss of a job — people opt for college. With the economy improving, and with the cost of college rising, maybe blue-collar and young Americans figure there’s not as much to gain from a degree whose price tag seems out of reach. Horror stories about student loan defaults — still a reality for about one in six borrowers — can’t help.

Education is more important than ever. That said, not everyone needs to attend a four- year college. Trade schools and associate degrees make sense for many. Lots of skilled labor cannot be outsourced or automated.

The political angle is relevant too. Higher education has leaned left for decades, but in recent years campus identity politics have taken center stage. It’s been bad for the brand. Clamp-downs on free speech and fragile students needing safe spaces from microaggressions contribute to a sense among right-leaning Americans — fair or unfair—that the whole thing is an overpriced sham. Also, rural Americans and men have responded positively to a new emphasis on the skilled trades from advocates like Mike Rowe.

So Is College Worth It?

We live in an information age, a technological age, an age in which lifelong learning will be rewarded, and an age in which mindless work will be automated. Education is more important than ever. That said, not everyone needs to attend a four- year college. Trade schools and associate degrees make sense for many. Lots of skilled labor cannot be outsourced or automated. 

Those who attend a four-year college should graduate — because that’s how you get the return on investment. The main things that prevent graduation are lack of studying and lack of money. Self-discipline can solve the former. Not overspending can address the latter.

It’s a myth that college has to cost a fortune. Shopping for value can go a long way. Value implies not getting a useless degree filled with fluff courses. If you earn a four-year degree in a discipline that’s a good fit, if you don’t over-borrow, if you pick-up some relevant work experiences along the way, if you’re curious, resilient, and willing to keep learning, you’ll be fine.

That’s why those who earn a degree typically have a positive view of the experience.

Dr. Alex Chediak (Ph.D., U.C. Berkeley) is a professor and the author of Thriving at College (Tyndale House, 2011), a roadmap for how students can best navigate the challenges of their college years. His latest book is Beating the College Debt Trap. Learn more about him at www.alexchediak.com or follow him on Twitter (@chediak).